Tag Archives: migration

Ada County in 2020: Out-migration surpassed in-migration within Idaho

IRS data show urban outflows to exurban counties

In 2020 Ada County posted a net migration loss within Idaho. Simply stated, more Idaho residents moved out than moved in.

Inbound migration to the state’s most populous county from other parts of Idaho totaled 8,039, while outbound migrants numbered 10,610 for a net migration loss of 2,571. Where did they go?

 Figure 1: Ada County largest net migration losses, 2020

Source: IRS data accessed through Lightcast.io, Feb. 14, 2023

With the exception of outflows to Idaho County, the largest number of Ada County residents migrated to counties within the commute shed – an area within a 30-minute commute – with 1,874 leaving for neighboring Canyon County.

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Educated People Moving to Idaho, Growth Concentrated in Cities

Migration into Idaho is, in some ways, a study of contrasts. While Idaho ranks 16th in the nation for state-to-state migration of people over 25 years old, 99 percent of that migration is into the Boise metro area. In 2014, 3,104 adults moved from another state into Idaho of which 3,066 moved to one of the six counties that encompass Idaho’s Treasure Valley. The only other places in Idaho that saw a positive flow from outside of the state were Coeur d’Alene (Kootenai County) and the Magic Valley, though still low. Because the Lewiston metro area straddles the state line, it was excluded from this analysis which examined only state-to-state and metro-to-state flows.1-Net-I_state-Migration

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

2-Idaho-Interstate-Gain_LossSource: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Most adults moving into Idaho had a high school diploma but no college experience nor a post-secondary degree. In fact, for every one adult with a bachelor’s degree or higher who moved in, five adults with no more than a high school diploma moved into Idaho at the same time. This ratio improves with adults who had some college experience or an associate’s degree; for each one of these adults who moved into the state, two with no more than a high school diploma also moved in.

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Migration Factors into Idaho’s Newest Population Estimates

Migration, both international and domestic, drove Idaho’s significant population growth prior to the recession, but home equity erosion, a stagnant real estate market and lost jobs slowed Idaho’s population growth.

2012 Median Age

Even as other states lose population, Idaho’s has continued to grow at a much slower rate, but that growth has been natural – births exceeding deaths in a state where the median age of 35.2 years, more than two years below the national median age. Utah with its larger families has the lowest median age among the states and the District of Columbia. Like Idaho, both North Dakota and California are states that see high levels of migration, based on driver’s license data from the Idaho Department of Transportation. Idahoans have looked to North Dakota for jobs while Californians have looked to Idaho for its quality of life and comparatively low housing prices.

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Mexico Shows Strong Economic Growth, Lower Outmigration

Mexico’s future is looking brighter. Like the United States, it is benefitting from rising costs in China, which are bringing manufacturing closer to the American consumer. Mexico’s growing prosperity is making many American companies court its consumers. At the same time, improved economic conditions and lower birth rates are reducing migration from Mexico to the United States.

us mexican population

The Aztec Tiger

Mexico is experiencing an economic resurgence and seems poised for strong growth in the next few years. Some observers are talking about the rise of the “Aztec tiger.” The nation of 115 million, currently the world’s 14th largest economy, could be among the world’s 10 biggest economies by the end of this decade. It is expected to compete successfully for manufacturing work against China, India and Brazil.
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