For Immediate Release: Jan. 10, 2023
Media Contact: Lindsay.Trombly@labor.idaho.gov
Idaho businesses are invited to learn about seasonal adjustments in employment and unemployment data in a free webinar Jan. 17.
Lisa Grigg, Idaho Department of Labor economist for north central Idaho, will explain the reasons behind seasonality and shed light on the seasonal adjustment process. Workshop participants will learn what seasonal adjustments are and how the process allows clearer comparisons of data over time as calendar effects, major outliers and one-time events are eliminated.
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Most of Idaho experiences below freezing temperatures and is often covered under a blanket of snow between November and February. When the weather turns colder, employment levels decline in industries such as construction, mining/logging and leisure/hospitality. The holiday season and winter breaks result in fluctuations in educational services and retail. Despite the Farmer’s Almanac predicting Idaho’s 2022-2023 winter season to be dry and calm, it will still see patterns in our overall employment levels where the direction and magnitude can often be forecasted. This reduction in employment does not represent a permanent trend for analyzing the labor force but reverses in a predictable manner throughout the calendar year. Data that is seasonally adjusted helps reduce the noise of recurring seasonal fluctuation and show the true underlying employment trends present in Idaho’s labor force. Continue reading →
The seasons are changing and so are retail employment trends. During the depths of the recent recession seasonal employment trends for many industries were subdued by soft hiring activity.
The distress in Idaho’s retail trade industry was especially prevalent between 2008 and 2010. Average employment for all Idaho’s industries in 2012 was still 7 percent below pre-recession levels. But retail trade employment was down 8.4 percent. Even though employment numbers are still down, signs of health are returning.
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