Idaho is synonymous with rural. Big skies, open spaces and mountains are as rugged as the brand of individualism prevailing in the state where the population continues to increase. Last year, in 2023, 1.96 million people called it home. From 2013 to 2023 over 350,000 people flocked to the Gem State. While Idaho’s urban counties claimed 79% and the lion’s share of this growth, Idaho rural counties also experienced significant change. The change within the last few years suggests Idaho’s wide-open spaces are continuing to attract those seeking a unique blend of the state’s rural culture and economic opportunity.
The Idaho Department of Labor classifies counties with a city exceeding 20,000 residents as urban, with the remaining 35 counties categorized as rural. Analyzing U.S. Census Bureau data and covered employment statistics, the department collects as part of the unemployment insurance process, reveals a 30,000-foot-level picture of how Idaho’s rural counties have fared over the past decade.
Idaho’s strong population growth figures have been thoroughly reported, and its nation-leading percentage change in growth for much of the past 10 years and has not bypassed Idaho’s rural counties. Of Idaho’s 353,000 population increase over the last decade, 75,100 people contributed to its rural counties — 61% of this population arrived from 2020 to 2023. This surge of growth during these four years was fueled by the pandemic and people moving for Idaho’s open spaces. Since 2023 the magnitude of the surge has been reduced, but rural Idaho continues to pull in new people at respectable rates.
Source: The U.S. Census Bureau
Source: The U.S. Census Bureau
Idaho’s rural population growth has not been equally distributed among the six regions the department uses to manage its programs.
Regional highlights include:
- Southwestern and southeastern Idaho have seen the strongest growth since 2020. Southwestern Idaho’s rural population has accelerated past southcentral to become the most populated.
- Northern Idaho’s rural county populations have brought it to near parity with southeastern Idaho, despite its surge in population growth.
- North central Idaho has seen the state’s slowest population growth in its rural counties during the last 10 years. It was the only region to experience a population decline in its rural counties in 2020 but has since seen a modest growth resurgence.
Source: The U.S. Census Bureau
Source: The U.S. Census Bureau
Idaho’s population changes have certainly had an influence on the economic changes in the state’s rural counties. While Idaho’s population was growing from 2013 to 2023, Idaho’s covered employment grew from 625,700 to 818,600 – 192,900 more covered jobs, an increase of 30.8%, or 2.7% annualized. Rural county employment increased by 20.9%, a robust growth rate that translates to an annualized rate of 1.9%.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
While both urban and rural counties had negative employment growth in 2020 due to the pandemic, rural counties fared better with a less severe decline of -0.5% compared to urban counties which had a -0.9% decline in 2020.
Like the change in population, there was an acceleration of growth from 2021 to 2023. Where rural counties had an average growth rate of 1.7% from 2013 to 2019 the average growth from 2021 through 2023 almost doubled to 3.1%.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Total employment highlights by region:
- Eastern Idaho rural counties have consistently been the best performing by region. This region is home to the Idaho National Laboratory, which is the key reason eastern Idaho has consistently had the highest annual percentage growth rate. This is the only region that did not decline during the pandemic.
- North central Idaho is the only region where the rural counties have not grown since 2021. An increase of 0.2% in 2022 was offset by a -0.2% decline in 2023. This happened despite a resounding 4.5% increase in 2021 as it recovered from the pandemic.
- With a covered employment total of over 56,000, south central Idaho holds the state’s largest economy among its rural counties. It also claims the second largest average percentage change of 3.5% from 2021 to 2023.
- Southeastern Idaho’s 1.2% average from 2013 to 2019 has jumped up to 2.9% for 2021 to 2023.
- Northern and southwestern Idaho’s rural county employment average growth both increased from their 2013 to 2019 averages to about 2.5% average growth after 2020.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Idaho’s rural landscape has undergone a significant transformation over the past decade. This shift warrants a more detailed analysis than this broad stroke offers. Idaho’s rural counties have witnessed a steady rise in population and employment opportunities. Past trends and new developments suggest a continued future of transformation, economic opportunity and growth for Idaho’s rural counties.
Craig.Shaul@labor.idaho.gov, research analyst supervisor
Idaho Department of Labor
208-696-2150
This labor market information report is 100% funded by the U.S. Department of Labor as part of an Employment and Training Administration award totaling $695,785.