Rural Idaho means different things to different people. Based on my own Idaho in-migration, out-migration and rural living paradigms, my family and I moved to the state three separate times and have lived the rural Idaho experience.
Why did we choose to move to rural Idaho? Simply put, it was time for a change of pace and subjectively, a better environment to raise kids. In all three instances an opportunity cost weighed into the decision.
Rural Idaho is framed as referring to people, demographics, population, the land itself — private and public — or the rural economy. The preeminent rural definition we use at the Idaho Department of Labor classifies the state’s rural counties in three categories: rural center, open rural and commuting rural.
Idaho’s eight commuting rural counties are defined as having 25% of the working population commuting to one of Idaho’s nine urban counties for work. The state’s five rural center counties are defined by the largest city within containing a population between 7,500 and 20,000 residents. Open rural are 22 counties that have neither a commuting population nor a large enough city to be classified under the other rural categories [1].
Rural and retired
Nationally, an 11.5% share of the population is 65 and older. In rural Idaho. the senior population skews much older [1], and people age 65 and older find ideal locations to retire. From the July 2023 U.S. Census population estimates, 21.4% of the population in rural Idaho counties is at the retirement age of 65 and older, twice as high as the state share of 65 and older residents at 10.7% [4].
In rural counties such as Adams, Custer and Lemhi, nearly one-third of their respective populations are 65 and older. Many within this aging rural demographic may also be farmers, ranchers or large landowners.
Figure 1
Population change and outmigration in context
Noteworthy to what outmigration represents to all of Idaho, the total state population growth from 2020-21 was 3.4%. Total statewide outmigration in 2021 was 2.5% of Idaho’s 1.9-million-population, or 48,328 people. For rural counties, population growth was 2.5% for that same time period. The average rural migration rate was 3.9%, or 20,990 people that moved from rural Idaho counties in 2021 out of the rural population of 521,004 people [5]. Even though population growth was less in rural counties, rural outmigration exceeded state outmigration in 2021.
Unemployment and movement
Idaho’s rural population growth and outmigration paradox allows us to examine reasons why. For example, rural county outmigration rates somewhat correlate to unemployment. More than one third (34%) of rural counties which had both higher unemployment rates (than the state benchmark rate of 3.1% in December 2021), coincided with higher-than-average annual outmigration rates [1 and 2]. These counties included Adams, Benewah, Blaine, Boise, Boundary, Butte, Camas, Clark, Elmore, Lewis, Teton and Valley. Month-to-month unemployment in the counties is still relatively low. This rural outmigration rate may be due to a combination of lack of employment opportunities, geographic isolation and lack of amenities as a function of a household or individual’s behavior reacting under certain conditions. It’s difficult to confirm if there is a direct correlation as a statewide trend with unemployment rates being the drivers of people leaving rural counties.
Figure 2
Comparative rural and statewide socioeconomic factors
A later snapshot of Idaho’s rural population denotes 27.8% – 538,215 people – of the state’s total population of 1.94 million people lived in rural counties as of 2022 [3]. A rural cross-section of certain socioeconomic data indicators gives context when comparing rural Idaho to the state at large [3]. Populous urban counties like Twin Falls, Madison, Payette, Nez Perce, Bonneville, Bannock, Kootenai, Canyon and Ada are combined with rural counties and reflect the Idaho statewide data in Figure 3. The rural median age is slightly older and more college educated.
Rural home values are 20% less than the state median. Rural homeowner vacancies exceed the statewide rate, and the rural poverty rate is less than statewide [3]. From a state labor market perspective, average rural unemployment as of December 2023 stands at 3.4% compared to 3.3% statewide. People aged 16 and older in the civilian, non-institutionalized rural labor force represent 39.5% of the state’s overall labor force [1].
Figure 3
Remote work in remote areas
The momentum for population growth in a rural area can be based on the notion it is picturesque and a less expensive place to live. A lower rural cost of living allows resident spending to stretch farther. Statewide, record-breaking rural population growth and the pandemic only added to this trend by encouraging workers to leave crowded and expensive urban hubs outside the state, move to Idaho and work remotely. If remote work remains widespread, people living and working remotely in Idaho’s rural counties could potentially benefit from a clear price advantage on housing. Per the department’s Business Climate Survey results from 2023, 11% of Idaho’s total employment is made up of either remote or hybrid workers. Just over half of that 11%, work fully remote here in Idaho [1].
Strengths, challenges and opportunities
In 2020, Idaho stakeholders, including city and county government officials from throughout the state answered a survey on local rural development and listed employment opportunities, affordable housing — workforce housing in particular — and inadequate infrastructure [1] as some of their top challenges. These socioeconomic concerns provide a framework for the kind of future decisions and policymaking necessary for allowing Idahoans to forge ahead and meet these challenges. People living in rural Idaho have several things working in their favor including tourism, outdoor recreation, remote workers and retirees. To offset development concerns, an influx of rural growth potentially brings added tax revenues and commerce to rural areas.
Sources:
[1] Idaho Department of Labor
[2] Lightcast (formerly EMSI)
[3] United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2022, 1-yr estimates
[4] United States Census Bureau population estimates, July 2023
[5] United States Census Bureau population estimates: 2020 decennial; American Community Survey 2021, one-year estimates
Ryan.Whitesides@labor.idaho.gov, regional economist
Idaho Department of Labor
(208) 557-2500 ext. 3628
This Idaho Department of Labor project is 100% funded by USDOL as part of $695,785 in Workforce Information Grant funds from the Employment and Training Administration.