Idaho’s share of youth wanes despite overall population growth

Idaho’s youth population — those 19 years and younger — grew by 2.7% between 2020-2024, according to recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was relatively low compared with the 65 and older category growing by 17.4% and the state’s total population growing by 8.2% or 152,204 people.

Of the total population growth seen between 2020-2024, Idaho’s youth contributed the smallest share among all census age categories at 9.3%. However, what is typically considered as “working age” — a combination of two census age categories covering those 20-64 years of age — contributed 56.3%, helping backfill retirements and exits to other occupations or industries (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Share of Idaho’s total population growth by age, 2020-2024 

share of Idaho's total population growth by different census age categories for 2020-2024Source: Vintage 2024 Population Estimates, Demographics, U.S. Census Bureau

With smaller families becoming the norm for most U.S. households, it is not surprising Idaho’s youth share is also decreasing. The rationale for having less children is unique to each household with common causes being the high cost of child care, housing, health care and education.

While Idaho’s youth population growth still contributed to the state’s overall growth from 2020-2024, the share eventually declined to represent only 26.6% of the total population by 2024. However, this decline was countered by growth in other age categories as seen in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Idaho population by age, 2020 and 2024

Idaho population growth by age category, comparing 2020 and 2024Source: Vintage 2024 Population Estimates, Demographics, U.S. Census Bureau

The distribution of Idaho’s population skewing older can be explained by the extended longevity of older populations now compared to previous generations. Enhanced health care options and research working in tandem with disease prevention, lifestyle changes and anti-tabacco campaigns have also extended life expectancy.

These changes follow an overall slowdown in population growth after the boom seen during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. While total population growth was ongoing during 2023 and 2024, it was about half of what it was in 2021 and this loss was magnified with youth population growth (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Population growth rates, 2021-2024

Idaho's population growth rates, comparing youth change to total population change, 2021-2024Source: Vintage 2024 Population Estimates, Demographics, U.S. Census Bureau

Youth population by county

In 2024, the top five largest counties for youth population were urban and included Ada (126,636), Canyon (76,572), Kootenai (44,872), Bonneville (41,788) and Twin Falls (27,124). These counties comprised 60% of Idaho’s youth in 2024, estimated at 531,916.

Figure 4. Idaho’s five largest counties by youth population, 2024

Idaho's five largest counties by youth population, 2024Source: Vintage 2024 Population Estimates, Demographics, U.S. Census Bureau

Between 2020-2024, most Idaho counties experienced growth in the youth aged population with Canyon County adding the most at 5,742. Other counties that experienced significant four-year increases included Kootenai (+2,119), Bonner (+1,368), Madison (+1,063) and Latah (+864).

Except for Bonner, the counties experiencing larger increases in youth population were those with colleges and universities, meaning shifting enrollment sizes affected their populations differently year to year.

There were 11 Idaho counties that experienced declines in youth population from 2020-2024, including the state’s largest county — Ada — losing 891 youth, along with Blaine (-361), Bannock (-276), Nez Perce (-192) and Gooding (-146).

When comparing the share of youth within each county’s total 2024 population, Madison County took the lead at 45.4%. The other top counties for youth share — Jefferson (34.1%), Cassia (33.2%), Franklin (32.5%) and Jerome (31.9%) — had about one youth for every three residents. These counties are generally agricultural and attract workers with larger families for cultural or religious reasons. Madison County, which is home to BYU-Idaho, had an average household size of 3.45, about 30% larger than the state’s average household size of 2.66.

The Idaho counties with the lowest share of their 2024 population in the youth category included Clearwater (16.1%), Boise (17%), Adams (17.7%), Custer (18.3%) and Valley (19.4%). These counties have high levels of outdoor recreation and mountainous terrain — typical attractions for retirees, Figure 5.

Figure 5. Youth as a share of total population, 2024 top and bottom five

Youth as a share of total population, 2024 top and bottom fiveSource: Vintage 2024 Population Estimates, Demographics, U.S. Census Bureau

Youth population by race and ethnicity

The preponderance of the state’s youth population is in the census race category of “white alone.” However, just as the U.S. is becoming more multiracial, this has also contributed to Idaho’s recent growth.

From 2020-2024, the “non-white alone” category had a growth rate about 12 times greater than the “white alone” category — the non-white youth population grew by 16.5% (+7,900) and the white youth population grew by 1.3% (+6,200).

While the numerical increase for each category does not show a radical difference, the share of white youth as a percentage of the state’s total youth has fallen from 90.7% in 2020 to 89.5% in 2024.

Figure 6. Youth population growth rates by race, 2020-2024

Youth population growth rates by race, 2020-2024, white alone versus not white aloneSource: Vintage 2024 Population Estimates, Demographics, U.S. Census Bureau

In terms of Hispanic versus non-Hispanic, Hispanic youth growth was more stable year over year and contributed more to Idaho’s total youth population growth from 2020-2024, adding 12,357 people.

The non-Hispanic youth population experienced strong growth of about 6,500 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020-2021, but then saw a dramatic drop in population the subsequent years, losing approximately 4,700 from 2023-2024 (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Idaho youth population change by ethnicity

Idaho youth population change by ethnicity (Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic) 2020-2024Source: Vintage 2024 Population Estimates, Demographics, U.S. Census Bureau

Between 2020-2024, the Hispanic youth share grew each year by approximately half a percentage point while the non-Hispanic youth population share lost half a percentage point each year (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Idaho youth population share by ethnicity

Idaho youth population share by ethnicity, Hispanic vs non-Hispanic, 2020-2024Source: Vintage 2024 Population Estimates, Demographics, U.S. Census Bureau

Conclusion

Idaho continues to rank among the top youngest states in the nation but is not immune to factors such as greater longevity among its aged population, smaller families or the delayed start of families by those of child-bearing age.

As most advanced economies experience an aging society, Idaho is preparing to backfill jobs left by retirees with investments in both innovation and a skilled workforce.

Jan.Roeser@labor.idaho.gov, regional economist
Idaho Department of Labor
208-696-2172


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