Idaho projected to create 120,000 jobs by 2032

For more than a decade, Idaho has consistently ranked high among the fastest growing states in the nation in critical categories like population growth and job creation. Newly released long-term industry projections from the Idaho Department of Labor show that the state is anticipated to maintain this position of strength and enjoy robust economic growth in the coming decade. With a forecasted annualized growth rate of 1.3%, Idaho is expected to grow significantly faster than the rest of the nation. In contrast, the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics expects employment in the U.S. to grow at only 0.3% annually – less than a quarter of Idaho’s expected growth rate.

The broader context of America’s shifting demographic structures have created an environment in which growth rates can vary drastically from state to state. In recent decades, falling birth rates have led to increasingly slower population growth in the U.S. and an aging population, owing to the relative shortage of young Americans compared to the growing retiree population. As a result, the main driver of population growth for individual states is no longer natural growth (family formation and births), but rather in-migration, either from other states or from foreign countries.

In this demographic environment, where an in-migration of new residents is the primary source of population growth, Idaho has enjoyed a much faster growth rate than average, owing to the state’s high desirability and quality of life. As a result, Idaho’s population has grown nearly three times as fast as the rest of the country over the last several decades.

This pattern is expected to continue in the coming years. Idaho’s total population is expected to grow by 15.1% between 2022 to 2032, reaching a total of 2.24 million people. This contrasts to the relatively low projected growth of only 4.2% for the U.S. in the same period. Idaho’s population growth is also more balanced, with the working age population (16 to 65 years old) expected to grow by 14%, compared to only 2% for the nation.

This robust base of population growth gives Idaho an optimistic economic growth profile for the coming decade. Idaho’s labor force is projected to grow at 1.4% annually, adding roughly 146,000 people to the labor force by 2032. This growing labor pool is projected to facilitate the creation of some 120,000 new jobs in Idaho, bringing the state’s total employment to 997,000.

While all industries in Idaho are projected to grow during the 2022 to 2032 projection period, several industries are expected to experience particularly fast growth. Health care and social assistance are anticipated to account for 20% of new jobs (approximately 25,0000). Idaho’s retiree population is growing rapidly, with the 65 and older demographic expected to grow by 31% in the coming decade. Because Americans over the age of 65 consume significantly more health care than those younger than 65, this growing retiree demographic is expected to fuel a continued expansion of Idaho’s health care industry. By 2032, total health care employment in Idaho is expected to reach near 140,000, accounting for some 14% of all employment in the state.

Construction continues to grow in Idaho, driven by the state’s demand for new housing to accommodate rapid population growth, as well as infrastructure and civil engineering work required to serve Idaho’s growing communities. With Idaho’s population forecasted to grow by nearly 300,000 people by 2032, construction is expected to create more than 16,000 new jobs. The trades and transportation fields are also expected to grow rapidly, adding 19,000 jobs. In particular, the growing ubiquity of digital shopping and product delivery is projected to lead to strong growth in warehousing and distribution centers, truck transportation, and delivery and courier services.

Overall, the picture of Idaho’s economy is one of continued momentum and perennially high growth that places it among the fastest growing states in the nation. In a broader national context of slowing population growth, the ability of a state to consistently generate demographic growth to attract new residents from other states is integral to its economic growth. In this regard, Idaho is well positioned for success.