One of the most visible trends in the American economy — especially during the holiday season — has been the long and steady rise of online retail sales, or e-commerce. Currently, in 2025, e-commerce accounts for more than 16% of all retail sales in the U.S., and trends suggest it will continue to gain ground in future years.

E-commerce has been growing as an industry since the turn of the century. In 2000, e-commerce retail sales made up less than 1% of total retail activity in the U.S. Since then, this share has continued to increase steadily, with a rapid acceleration occurring in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, as can be seen below in Figure 1.

Figure 1. E-commerce share of total sales, United StatesSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly E-Commerce Report 2000-2025¹

The shift away from nearly universal “brick-and-mortar” retail toward e-commerce has had a discernable impact on employment patterns.

Contrary to the perception that brick-and-mortar retail has been harmed or hollowed out by e-commerce, employment in retail trade in Idaho has continued to grow over the last two decades, with more than 90,000 Idahoans currently employed.

However, interesting patterns in employment data have demonstrated a shift in consumer behavior.

The most obvious point of comparison is the relative growth of the retail trade industry (brick-and-mortar retail establishments) and the transportation and warehousing industry, which includes both the fulfillment centers and delivery services associated with e-commerce.

Both industries saw similar employment growth until 2018, when transportation and warehousing started to grow significantly faster than retail trade. There was an especially rapid acceleration in 2020, as shown in Figure 2.

Despite this growth, the actual number of people employed in retail trade still remains significantly higher than transportation and warehousing, though the gap has decreased in recent years.

Figure 2. Net industry employment growth in Idaho since 2000Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Current Employment Statistics²

Another implication of e-commerce’s growing share of retail sales has been a decline in the seasonality of retail trade employment.

Traditionally, retail establishments would see a wave of seasonal hiring in the closing months of the year to accommodate heavy holiday shopping traffic.

As shown in Figure 3, December seasonal employment in retail trade used to routinely range between 3%-4% of the industry’s total employment; however, that share has steadily fallen to a low of 1.5% in 2024.

Overall, retail employment continues to grow over the long run and experience positive seasonality at the end of the year, but the seasonal surges of employment around the holidays have decreased steadily over time.

Figure 3. December seasonality of retail trade employment in IdahoSource: Idaho Department of Labor, Current Employment Statistics ²

In many ways, the demise of brick-and-mortar stores has been greatly overstated. Retail trade remains one of the largest bases of employment in Idaho, and it has continued to grow even as e-commerce has absorbed a greater share of sales.

However, employment in areas associated with e-commerce has been explosive — the transportation and warehousing industry has grown nearly four times as quickly as retail trade since January 2018. At the same time, the large seasonal hiring activity in December that was once characteristic of retail trade has subsided.

As consumer preferences change, so does the shape of Idaho’s economic structure, including during the holidays.

Samuel.Wolkenhauer@labor.idaho.gov, labor economist
Idaho Department of Labor
208-696-2353

Footnotes

¹ U.S. Census Bureau via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “E-Commerce Retail Sales as a Percent of Total Sales.” Accessed December 2025, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECOMPCTSA.

² U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, & Earnings.” Accessed December 2025, https://www.bls.gov/sae/.

---

This Idaho Department of Labor project is funded by the U.S. Department of Labor for SFY26 as part of a Workforce Information grant (41%) and state/nonfederal funds (59%) totaling $860,595.

This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The U.S. Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.