In the 20 years following the end of the federal assault weapons ban in 2004, the employment growth rate of Idaho’s small arms manufacturing industry nearly tripled — greatly outpacing the nation’s rate of 60%. While the small arms market is currently experiencing a slowdown both nationally and in Idaho, new developments in 2025 regulations and legal cases might be the key to upcoming growth.
Idaho has become home to some of the most well-known small arms and small arms accessory companies in the world, including some that contract with the U.S.’s military and police departments, such as Nightforce Optics, Alien Gear Holsters, Seekins Precision and Federal/CCI ammunition. Idaho is also home to some more boutique and innovative manufacturers such as Nemo Arms, Primary Weapons Systems, Bishop Firearms and Foxtrot Mike. Businesses like these have brought Idaho’s number of small arms manufacturing businesses up from eight to 31 since 2004.
The industry’s employment deteriorated from 2018-2019 and 2022-2024 when the usual drivers of demand — fear of regulation or missing out, deregulation, social unrest and disposable income — became less present. While the 2020 pandemic spurred a 300,000 increase in long gun sales in Idaho, the subsequent decline in pandemic anxiety and disposable income decreased small arms sales again and almost no new employees were hired in the industry (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Small arms related employment
*Grey indicates period of Federal Assault Weapons Ban
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW
However, recent developments in the small arms industry might end the current stagnation in sales and employment. The end of the assault weapons ban in 2004 exemplified how deregulation could benefit the industry and 2025 has been unprecedented in this regard.
After the passing of the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” in July 2025, portions of the National Firearms Act of 1934 are set to change. Jan. 1, 2026 will see the elimination of the associated $200 tax for suppressors and short-barreled rifles, potentially increasing demand for those models and accessories.1
Additionally, successful legal challenges to the regulation of devices allowing for a faster rate of fire in semiautomatic firearms, known as “forced reset triggers” — such as RareBreed, Delta Team Tactical, Atrius Super Selektor and triggers of the Hoffman Tactical design — have the potential to increase demand for ammunition and replacement parts as users of these items may also increase ammo consumption and parts wear.2
While the fear-driven market growth of 2020 appears to be over for now, a deregulation-driven market may increase small arms demand in the years to come.
History of Idaho small arms manufacturing and the deregulation driven market
The sunset of the 1994 assault weapons ban — also known as the Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act — and subsequent legal victories for civilian firearms ownership have brought an expansion of firearms and related production to Idaho.
The 1994 assault weapons ban was one of the most influential pieces of legislation for the civilian small arms market since the National Firearms Act of 1934 which heavily regulated suppressors, short-barreled firearms and fully automatic firearms.
The 1994 ban was on several firearm features and models.3 Bans on specific models of firearms or core model features led to the dissolution or reorganization of some smaller manufacturers of the time such as Intratec, Calico and Idaho’s Wilkinson Arms.
Analysis by the U.S. Department of Justice in 1999 found just before the ban there was an increase in purchases of the soon-to-be restricted firearms — the market was driven by a fear of missing out on those features.
As the ban hit, prices increased for pre-ban firearms by more than 50% but soon fell back to pre-ban levels due to market saturation.4 Figure 2 shows the estimated production of firearms for the U.S. domestic market including civilian and law enforcement but not military.
Production of new ban compliant firearms was stagnant as the availability and cost of pre-ban firearms provided little reason to buy their more limited contemporaries. When the ban expired in 2004 due to its sunset provision, overall production of firearms for the domestic market doubled within the ensuing decade.
Figure 2. U.S. domestic market small arms production
*Grey indicates period of Federal Assault Weapons Ban
Source: The Trace Production Data5
New demand for rifles after the end of the ban was a boon to both national and state firearms sales and production. As visible in Figure 3, Idaho accounted for about 1% of total long gun sales in the U.S. at any given time — for example, in 2008, there were about 55,000 long gun sales in Idaho and 5.5 million sales nationwide.
Sales ramped up nationally and in Idaho in the lead up and the immediate aftermath of the 2012 election when panic buying ensued due to fear of federal regulations. Relaxed after the 2016 election, the market would not see major surges in demand until 2020 when panic buying resumed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and civil unrest. While there was a following decline from these highs, 2024 data suggests sales in Idaho still remained elevated above pre-pandemic sales by about 12,000 long guns, as shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Long gun sales
*Grey indicates period of Federal Assault Weapons Ban
Source: The Trace Sales Data6
Through this shifting demand one thing remains clear: the emerging small arms industry in Idaho has benefited from the end of the 1994 assault weapons ban.
Brandon.Duong@labor.idaho.gov, regional economist
Idaho Department of Labor
208-236-6715
Footnotes
- U.S. Congress, H.R. 1, 119th Congress: One Big Beautiful Bill Act, 2025, https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text.
- U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Public Affairs, “Department of Justice Announces Settlement of Litigation between the Federal Government and Rare Breed Triggers,” press release, May 16, 2025, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/department-justice-announces-settlement-litigation-between-federal-government-and-rare-breed.
- U.S. Congress, H.R. 3355, 103rd Congress: Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 (Pub. L. No. 103-322) (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Publishing Office, 1994), https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-103hr3355enr/pdf/BILLS-103hr3355enr.pdf.
- U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, and National Institute of Justice, Impacts of the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban: 1994–96 (Research in Brief No. NCJ 173405) (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, March 1999), PDF, https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/173405.pdf.
- The Trace Gun Violence Data Hub, “Firearm Production,” dataset, February 28, 2025, The Trace, https://datahub.thetrace.org/dataset/firearm-production/.
- The Trace Gun Violence Data Hub, “Firearm Sales,” dataset, February 28, 2025, The Trace, https://datahub.thetrace.org/dataset/gun-sales/.
This Idaho Department of Labor project is funded by the U.S. Department of Labor for SFY25 as part of a Workforce Information grant (40%) and state/nonfederal funds (60%) totaling $885,703.
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