Employment
Idaho’s manufacturing industry has grown by 29% (or 16,190 workers) over the past 10 years from 2012-2022 while the national level has grown by 7% (or 854,184 workers). However, it’s important to note that industry growth since 2007 shows a different story with Idaho growing 10% while the national growth rate declined by 8% during that same period.
Idaho’s manufacturing industry has taken a stark detour from the national manufacturing employment trend. Idaho recovered from the Great Recession and experienced a small speed bump while observing the COVID-19 pandemic. Whereas the national level strictly recovered from the pandemic shock and never fully recovered from the Great Recession.
As an industry, manufacturing experiences some volatility as demonstrated by swings in global supply chains, trade barriers, consumer spending, business cycles and offshoring to name a few. Idaho’s manufacturing employment history shows more expansionary periods than contractionary over the past 20 years. Nationally, manufacturing employment growth is rockier with a larger and deeper contractionary period during observed recessions and slower employment growth than Idaho from 2011-2019.
While manufacturing has been on the rise in the state, not all manufacturing sectors have grown the exact same way. Non-durable manufacturing, defined as goods that last less than three years (represented by food manufacturing) didn’t experience declines in employment during the great recession. However, durable goods manufacturing – goods that last three or more years (represented by computer and electronic product manufacturing) – experienced a significant cooldown during the great recession as offshoring and automation crowded out many jobs in the durable goods sector.
Non-durable goods manufacturing – largely made up of agriculture and food processing – is a difficult and risky industry to offshore. This explains why there has been a performance gap between durable and non-durable goods manufacturing.
A variety of factors point to why Idaho’s manufacturing industry could be performing better than the national level:
- Population: Idaho’s population has grown 21.9% from 2013-2023 compared to the U.S. population growing at 5.7% over the same period. Idaho’s population and labor force has been growing much faster than the national level. [1]
- Idaho’s Manufacturing Subsectors: Idaho’s largest manufacturing subsectors (food processing, computer and electronic, and wood product manufacturing) [2] are manufacturing subsectors with positive employment projection at the national level. [3] Essentially, Idaho’s largest manufacturing subsectors are those that are projected to thrive in an industry that has tenuous employment projections on the national level.
Workforce Indicators
Labor force constraints and an aging workforce continue to be a challenge in manufacturing employment. [4] According to Quarterly Workforce Indicators provided by the U.S Census, Idaho’s manufacturing industry is aging, as those in the 65 and older age cohort take up a larger share of employment while prime age workers (25-54 years old) are taking up a smaller share. This aging trend in the industry’s workforce could provide a long-term challenge in hiring the level the industry wants.
Youth apprenticeships have the potential to provide a pipeline of younger workers for employers and provide high paying jobs to young people. Idaho’s School to Registered Apprenticeship Program splits a student’s time between traditional high school classes and hands-on work experience.
Outlook
The Idaho Department of Labor’s projections predict that many of the top growing manufacturing occupations will be construction and housing, electronic components, and specialized manufacturing (aircraft components and jewelers). As Idaho grows, demand for housing has increased, creating a greater need for products like furniture, cabinets and textiles.
With increased geopolitical tensions along with the COVID-19 pandemic harming supply chains, America has worked on reshoring some of its supply chain to favor domestic manufacturers in case of a future pandemic or geopolitical conflict or even trade disputes. This reshoring effort will reinvigorate domestic manufacturing and provide increased demand for occupations in manufacturing here in the U.S. For example, the CHIPS and Science Act provides federal funds for domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors, a crucial input in many goods from cars to toasters. Reshoring efforts like the CHIPS Act could increase employment for the currently stagnant durable goods manufacturing industry.
As manufacturing faces a tenuous outlook on the national stage, Idaho continues to be an outlier with strong projected growth in the industry. Subsectors like food processing in the south-central region of the state, wood product manufacturing in the north, and semiconductor and other electronic parts in the southwest and southeastern regions of the state, demonstrate manufacturing is a critical player in Idaho’s economy by providing jobs for Idahoans that pay well. The outlook for workers in the manufacturing industry in Idaho is looking bright.
Sources:
[1] Population and Housing Unit Estimates (census.gov)
[2] IMA_Impact_Report_2021-UpdatedFinal.pdf (inwp.org)
[3] Employment by detailed occupation : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)
[4] Resurgent Manufacturing Sector Faces Labor Constraints (stlouisfed.org)
Seth.Harrington@labor.idaho.gov, regional economist
Idaho Department of Labor
208-735-2500 ext. 3062
This Idaho Department of Labor project is 100% funded by USDOL as part of $695,785 in Workforce Information Grant funds from the Employment and Training Administration.