*The charts in this article, except for the H2A chart, are sourced by the U.S. Census of Agriculture*
Idaho’s agricultural roots run deep, with certain regions of the state maintaining this traditional economic base within the broader sector of agri-business.
According to the U.S. Census of Agriculture’s 2022 data, Idaho lost 2,119 farms and 144,000 acres of farmland between 2017 and 2022. While this sounds alarming, it’s important to understand Idaho’s industries usually follow national trends.
For example, it is important to note Idaho’s neighbors and the nation all followed the same downward trend of reductions in farms with a higher number of contiguous states losing ground by a greater ratio, as shown in Figure 1. The argument can be made that production is not dropping, rather agriculture is following the route of manufacturing and producing more with less.
The U.S. Census of Agriculture is the “gold standard” for data on farms and ranches across the nation. It also includes data on states and counties. The census provides information used to support grants across the nation and in Idaho. It was released in February and reports on 6 million data points associated with agricultural, originating in 1840 in collaboration with the decennial U.S. Census. Since 1997, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service has conducted the census every five years, instead of 10, on those years ending in a two or a seven.
The information gathered is a snapshot of what is happening at a point in time and involves an intensive collection effort. Many of the data points are still being released over 2024, including characteristics of the producers such as gender, ethnicity and race.
Fundamental change for most industries is driven by externalities, and agriculture is no different, although some maintain it is the riskiest sector. Some drivers of change for agriculture include:
• Technology and automation.
• Finance
• Labor supply and demand.
• The supply chain
• Market prices.
• Political unrest in other countries.
• Population growth.
Idaho’s shifting landscape
Idaho is the 11th largest state in the nation, based on its area at 52.9 million acres. The U.S. Census of Agriculture reported in 2022, that 11.6 million acres were dedicated toward agricultural operations. This is a 21.8% share of Idaho’s total area. This downward trend is evident most dramatically between the 2002 and 2007 census, shown in Figure 2. The temporary drop occurred when housing was expanding at an unsustainable pace. Ground previously farmed was gobbled up with a premature transition from farming to housing for some parcels.
Certain parcels in the early stages of development moved back into agriculture after the Great Recession, which experienced a slow recovery for the construction sector. Home building was stalled for five years as collaborated by the flatness of the slope for farmland values between 2007 and 2012, shown in Figure 3. There is a significant correlation between the price growth and the change of different land type values even though the values may differ. It’s important to note, some of construction’s slower recovery can be attributed to the workforce that left the industry during the Great Recession.
Not only did it make sense to keep acres productive when development was not imminent, property taxes can be reduced when categorized as farmland. The value of farmland is lower than developed land, as it sells and leases in larger sized parcels, providing an economy of scale. It also lacks amenities such as potable water, utilities and some infrastructure development preferred by homeowners. When the values are higher, the property taxes are also higher.
Housing and rural Idaho
By 2022, housing was in even greater demand with single-family homes under construction and more multi-family units being developed than in past years. The COVID-19 pandemic created a movement of people that migrated to Idaho from other states — some only staying through the pandemic. Others looked to Idaho as a permanent home, appreciating its minimal congestion and a housing market that was appreciating, yet still lower than their previous home state. Jobs, especially in the service sector, were available and this highly pressurized market for housing and construction was created. The hike in federal funds borrowing rates did not fully impact the housing market until later in 2022, after six rate hikes. Most borrowers had already locked in lower rates when the initial rate hike occurred in March.
The transition to developed land was more moderated and grew at a slower pace right after the Great Recession. It was still concerning for many involved in crop and livestock production and agricultural support, as well as the dozens of food processing plants scattered across southern Idaho that depend on commodities. With the pandemic, concerns heightened. Questions arose regarding Idaho’s emphasis on agriculture and whether it was misguided or if it was truly an industry that provides a greater economic impact than real estate development and construction.
Agriculture’s role in Idaho exports
Idaho feeds more than just the citizens of the state and the nation, sending many commodities and value-added food overseas. Idaho’s highest exports were recorded in 2022 at $3.1 billion. For comparison, exports were just under $1 billion in 2000, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The critical aspect of farming nationally is food security, potentially causing alarm when the share of acres declines across the nation. However, technology combined with research and development have tempered this concern for many.
• Yields have increased over time with more crops produced on less ground and higher production of milk per cow.
• Examples of greater depth and timeliness of available information include the aerial assessment of ground nutrients and soil hydration vis-à-vis drones, targeted chemical applications, and programmed irrigation, rather than the scatter approach.
• Automated implements that need less human intervention and no-till soil practices are reducing the number of workers in the fields. Genetically modified seeds and robotic milking barns are already implemented by many producers and were developed to reduce the need for human capital.
Workers in the agriculture industry
Automation that replaces workers is timely and critical, as it has become increasingly difficult to attract workers to an industry that has tremendous need during the growing season but not all year round. During the growing season, most workers are out in the extreme heat working more than 40 hours weekly. The average resident in Idaho has other opportunities for employment that allow for a more balanced lifestyle and provides a more competitive wage and benefit package. The number of H2A guest visa workers has expanded exponentially across Idaho from an estimated 3,000 in 2016 to 7,200 in 2023, more than doubling with the same growth pace nationally, shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4.
The U.S. Census of Agriculture estimated Idaho’s agricultural workforce at around 70,000, falling into three different categories: hired, unpaid and migrant. Figure 5 shows Idaho’s six different regions for comparison purposes. Clearly, region four requires the most workers, which makes sense with its higher number of dairy cows. This region has 495,841 dairy cows versus the state’s 665,000 dairy cows. Dairies do not meet the requirements for H2A guest visa as year-round employment is a necessity and H2A workers can only enter the U.S. and work for six months. Hence the dairy milkers show up in paid workforce, covered by unemployment insurance benefits. The unpaid workforce typically consists of family members that assist with farm-related tasks at some point during the census year. The duties might include bookkeeping, purchasing, record keeping, or any other back-office work, along with farm duties such as equipment operation, irrigating, equipment repair, maintenance and truck driving.
The census broke out their estimates as follows:
- 44,000 – hired workers.
- 21,000 – unpaid workers.
- 5,000 migrant workers.
The local food movement
Another counterbalance offsetting the loss of farm acres is the local food movement, with smaller farms providing produce for farmers’ markets, niche restaurants, and their own households — at least during Idaho’s growing season. This local production decreases the reliance on supermarkets that bring in produce from other parts of the U.S. or from another country. The largest number of farms continue to be the small or hobby farms of one to nine acres, depicted in the distribution of farms by size of acres, shown in Figure 6. The 10-49-acre farms have gained numbers from 1997 to 2022 up 1.8% or 120 farms. The other sized farms have all lost operations with the two extremes, losing farms at the lowest rate over the 25-year period, the 1,000+ acre farms lost 19% and the small farms from one to nine acres lost 21%. The current century has been favorable for hobby farmers, with acreages of one to nine gaining about 900 farms in the most recent 20-year timeframe.
The top five counties that experienced the greatest loss of acres are listed in Figure 7, with most of the counties experiencing demand in housing due to higher population growth.
The counties with the highest growth of agriculture acres already had a high concentration of agriculture, indicating agricultural use for the land is the comparative advantage or best use. Population and housing growth may not be occurring in those counties, to the degree it is in others, due to practical reasons such as lack of senior water rights for residential purposes, long distances to other communities or absence of diversity in the economy creating lackluster career opportunities for family members.
In summary, while Idaho’s agricultural acreage continues to face ongoing development challenges, human ingenuity and consumer demand for niche products are creating opportunities and advancing efficient farm practices for future generations.
Jan.Roeser@labor.idaho.gov, regional economist
Idaho Department of Labor
(208) 696-2172
This Idaho Department of Labor project is funded by the U.S. Department of Labor for SFY24 as part of a Workforce Information grant (48%) and state/nonfederal funds (52%) totaling $704,259.