Idaho is expected to continue its trend of job creation, reaching total employment of nearly 900,000 in 2025, according to new short-term projections from the Idaho Department of Labor. The new projections (which cover the 2023-2025 period) come against a backdrop of great economic strength in the state, which has consistently created jobs and maintained a low level of unemployment despite national economic turbulence like inflation and rising interest rates. Idaho’s annual projected employment growth rate of 1.2% signals the state’s labor market is expected to remain strong in the coming year.

The strength of Idaho’s job creation has become a motif in recent years, with the state routinely ranking among the leaders in the nation for job growth – according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Idaho has also ranked No. 2 in year-over-year job growth rate. The years following the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated recession have seen Idaho’s growth become even stronger – relative to the rest of the nation. Idaho’s total nonfarm employment is currently 11.5% higher than the pre-COVID baseline (representing 11.5% growth since the start of the pandemic in February 2020). In contrast, national employment growth is only 3% for the same time period.

Figure 1: Net nonfarm job growth from pre-pandemic baseline

Source: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

A new round of short-term projections from the department anticipates a continuation of this growth trend, slowing slightly contingent on labor force availability. A major source of strength is Idaho’s robust level of population growth, which (like the job creation rate) consistently ranks highest among other states. Current population forecasts anticipate Idaho’s labor force (the population either working or looking for work) will continue to grow at an average rate of approximately 14,500 per year. This continued labor force growth will allow the state to remain on its path of job creation.

A detailed breakout of the department’s projections shows well balanced growth, with all major industry sectors anticipated to grow through 2025. Substantial growth is expected in healthcare and construction, with these two sectors expected to account for nearly one-third of total employment growth. Healthcare is expected to continue its robust growth pattern based on the growth of the retiree population of the state (forecasted by the department to grow by 31% over the next decade).

Figure 2: Projected employment growth in Idaho by major sector

Source: the Idaho Department of Labor

Idaho’s experience in recent years clearly demonstrates the state’s status as a highly desirable, in-migration state. The state has a level of economic resiliency few other states can match, and the population has continued to grow, even in the current cycle of rising interest rates and inflation. This reliable baseline level of population growth has powered expanding demand for homes, healthcare services and consumer amenities, while providing Idaho with a growing labor force to accommodate a demand for workers. All these factors indicate Idaho’s labor market will be a major source of strength and the state will continue to enjoy robust job creation in the coming year.

Sam.Wolkenhauer@labor.idaho.gov, regional economist
Idaho Department of Labor
(208) 457-8789 ext. 4451

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