Tag Archives: population

Idaho’s 2022 county estimates indicate population growth is slowing

NEWS RELEASE

For Immediate Release: March 31, 2023
Media Contact: Jan.Roeser@labor.idaho.gov

Net migration was the driver behind 34,719 people added to Idaho’s population from July 2021 to July 2022, accounting for 88% of its growth, according to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released this week. The gains were mostly from domestic in-migration – people moving to Idaho from other states – rather than from another country or international in-migration.

Photo: aerial of MeridianThe bureau also reported a population growth slowdown for many counties since the height of the pandemic. The release included revised estimates for 2020 and 2021, along with components of change to explain upticks or troughs from the previous year.

The remaining share of the state’s population growth, nearly 12%, was from natural change – when births outweigh deaths. In 22 counties, deaths outweighed births, resulting in negative natural change, but those losses were offset with net migration growth. This set Idaho apart from the almost three-fourths of all counties nationally that reported more deaths than births, or natural decline.

Since the decennial census – April 2020 – net migration accounted for 91% of population change in Idaho, slightly above the 88% of the past year.

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Irish connections in Idaho

A wee bit of St. Patrick’s Day statistics

Every March 17, Ireland venerates the St. Patrick with a public holiday on the anniversary of his death[1]. While not a public holiday in the U.S., it is a day of celebration for many. It is the occasion to have a little ‘craic’ (news/gossip/entertainment) in homage to the Irish with food and drink that, if not Irish, is perhaps green in color, all while wearing green clothes. In the world of statistics and demographics, it’s a reason for another analysis highlighting the local connection  — or lack thereof — to the Emerald Island.

A total of 31.5 million people in the U.S. (9.5%) claim Irish ancestry[2] and outnumber the current Irish population by six to one. This means that every person in Ireland has six people in the U.S. (on average) eager to tell them they’re Irish, too, and to ask if they knew their sweet ancestor born in the County Kerry, County Mayo, County Limerick or (pick your county of Ireland here).

Map-US Irish population

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Ada County in 2020: Out-migration surpassed in-migration within Idaho

IRS data show urban outflows to exurban counties

In 2020 Ada County posted a net migration loss within Idaho. Simply stated, more Idaho residents moved out than moved in.

Inbound migration to the state’s most populous county from other parts of Idaho totaled 8,039, while outbound migrants numbered 10,610 for a net migration loss of 2,571. Where did they go?

 Figure 1: Ada County largest net migration losses, 2020

Source: IRS data accessed through Lightcast.io, Feb. 14, 2023

With the exception of outflows to Idaho County, the largest number of Ada County residents migrated to counties within the commute shed – an area within a 30-minute commute – with 1,874 leaving for neighboring Canyon County.

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2021 Census estimates show Idaho’s urban cities continue to see population gains

NEWS RELEASE

For Immediate Release: June 1, 2022
Media Contact: Jan.Roeser@labor.idaho.gov or Sam.Wolkenhauer@labor.idaho.gov

Four southwestern Idaho cities ranked in the top five slots for population growth in the state from 2020 to 2021 according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2021 Vintage Population Estimates.* Idaho Falls, ranked fourth and was the lone city outside of southwestern Idaho to rank in the top five.

Boise remained Idaho’s largest city, followed by Meridian, Nampa, Idaho Falls and Caldwell. Meridian edged out Nampa as Idaho’s second largest city in 2014 with the population difference increasing each year. Rankings for the top 15 Idaho cities by population size are shown in Table 1, with one change from 2020 — Kuna displaced Moscow for the No.13 spot.

Nationally, Meridian, Caldwell and Nampa ranked 13, 14 and 15 of the fastest-growing cities of 50,000 residents or more across the U.S., each at or above 5% growth rate.

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Idaho population projected to top 2 million by 2031

Recent population projections from the Idaho Department of Labor anticipate Idaho will continue its record of rapid growth, with the total statewide population crossing over 2 million for the first time by 2031.

The 2020 Census revealed the Gem State was the second-fastest growing state in the nation over the decade from 2010 to 2020, and single-year population estimates have ranked Idaho as the fastest-growing state for the past five years.

Idaho’s Labor Department’s latest projections anticipate a statewide growth rate of 1.1% per year over the 10-year period from 2021 to 2031, adding a total of 227,880 new residents to the state. This will raise Idaho’s population from 1,888,533 in 2021 to 2,116,413 in 2031.

All six of Idaho’s substate regions are expected to grow over the coming decade, with southwestern Idaho leading at 16.3% projected growth, followed by northern Idaho at 13%. These two regions together are expected to account for more than three quarters of the state’s total growth.

TABLE 1: Projected population growth by region

Projected Population Growth by Idaho Region

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New Census Data Shows Growth Across Idaho Counties

NEWS RELEASE

For Immediate Release: March 31, 2022
Media Contacts: Sam.Wolkenhauer@labor.idaho.gov or Jan.Roeser@labor.idaho.gov

Newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows Idaho’s population growth from 2020 to 2021 was well dispersed around the state, with every Idaho county growing in population over the year. 

The Census Bureau reported the state’s population rose from 1,847,772 in 2020, to 1,900,923 in 2021, in its July 1, 2021, population estimates.US Map by county population growth rate

 The newest data release shows how the population growth was distributed around the state. 

While the largest numerical growth was concentrated in urban counties, most of Idaho’s rural counties experienced proportional growth. In all, 38 of Idaho’s 44 counties grew by at least 1%, and every county grew faster than the national average growth rate, except for the Clark County, which is Idaho’s least populous county. Continue reading →

Idaho Employment Growth Projected to Continue Through 2023

Idaho’s robust labor market is expected to continue in the short term, according to new projections from the Idaho Department of Labor. Throughout 2020 and 2021, Idaho demonstrated consistent labor market resilience, becoming one of the first states to recover its job losses from the COVID-19 pandemic, and ranking – along with Utah – far ahead of all other states in post-pandemic job growth.

This growth is expected to persist through 2023 as in-migration and a growing demand for services continue to support Idaho’s economic strength.

The department’s newest short term projections forecast roughly 34,000 new jobs to be added in the state through 2023 for a growth rate of 2.1% per year. While almost all Idaho industries are projected to see job gains, rapid growth is expected in industries tied to high in-migration levels, such as construction and sectors still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Construction is projected to add 3,000 new jobs for an annual growth rate of 2.7% as demand for new housing remains high. The fastest projected growth rate, however, is in leisure and hospitality, forecasted to grow at 3.7% annually. This sector, which includes hotels and restaurants, was slower to recover from COVID-19 and therefore has room to re-add jobs lost in 2020.

Short-term job growth in Idaho tableSource: Idaho Department of Labor

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Idaho’s Center of Population Continues Westward Shift

Once a decade, the U.S. Census Bureau releases estimates of the U.S. center of population, a common practice since 1790. The bureau defines the center of population as a balance point — the point at where an imaginary, flat, weightless and rigid map of that area would balance perfectly if each person was assigned the same specific weight.

The center of population is one of several measures that are useful for visualizing changes in population over time. The location and distance of the center of the population, relative to some point such as the geographic center or previous center of the population, indicate the aggregate magnitude and direction of the population growth. Continue reading →

Idaho Leads Country in Population Growth Rate in 2021

NEWS RELEASE

For Immediate Release: Dec. 22, 2021
Media Contact: Jan Roeser, Jan.Roeser@labor.idaho.gov or Craig Shaul, Craig.Shaul@labor.idaho.gov

Idaho’s annual population growth from 2020 to 2021 at 2.9% led the other 49 states and Washington, D.C., in percent increase for the fifth consecutive year. The state gained 53,151 new residents – the ninth largest numeric change in the nation – for a new population estimate of 1.9 million, according to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released this week.

Idaho’s neighboring states of Utah and Montana ranked second and third respectively, each growing by 1.7%.

Domestic migration, or people moving from other states, was the primary driving component of Idaho’s population growth.

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Idaho’s Economic Recovery Exceeds Expectations in 2020

Idaho continued to experience rapid population growth, relatively low unemployment and a significant increase in business growth in 2020, even as the coronavirus pandemic caused major interruptions to the national and state economies.

Comparing Idaho’s 2020 economy with neighboring states gives economists a clearer perspective of the state’s economy and creates a roadmap of expectations for a full economic picture in 2021.

Idaho’s 2.1% population growth from 2019 to 2020 was the highest among the states for the fourth consecutive year. The U.S. Census Bureau will release state population estimates for 2021 on Dec. 21, 2021, and will reveal if Idaho’s population growth will continue to lead the nation. Figure f-1: Population growth by state, 2019 to 2020, ranked

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